How do I deal with uncertainties?

There are always uncertainties associated with a transition, for example relating to:

  • Gaps in knowledge
  • Unknown future technological developments
  • Unpredictable behaviour of actors
  • Variability in the behaviour of ecosystems.

Some ways of dealing with these uncertainties are:

  • Identify the uncertainties as clearly as possible so that they can be discussed. One method of doing this is to use scenarios
  • Make explicit choices about uncertainties with the stakeholders
  • Work on more than one transition path: explore different possible development paths
  • Monitor developments that you know to be uncertain and adjust your programme to them if necessary.